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Neck and neck: first Eastleigh constituency poll

February 7, 2013 9:36 PM
By Mark Pack in Liberal Democrat Voice
Originally published by East Midlands Liberal Democrats

1st Eastleigh poll puts Con + LDs within margin of error: C34 LD31 Lab 19 UKIP 13 (Ashcroft poll)

That 3 point gap is within the margin of error on the poll, and so it is, as they say in the US about such results, a statistical dead-heat.

What is clear is that this is a contest between Liberal Democrats and Conservatives. Nigel Farage was right it would seem to back out of fighting the seat - and Labour too are clearly out of it in Eastleigh.

The Labour vote share is particularly interesting as we'll see how well the party can do at squeezing a clearly third-place Labour in a Parliamentary by-election. The pre-2010 record is of course very good and early signs about the Labour campaign are promising:

The Liberal Democrat candidate is being selected at the weekend - and my money is on it being none of the people Guido has tipped

That doesn't mean you have to wait to help however: