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What’s the REAL state of the parties?

March 14, 2017 11:57 AM
By Brian Milnes and John Grout in Liberal Democrat Voice

Frequent Opinion Polls since May 2016 show one picture; Conservatives way ahead, Labour & Liberal Democrats suffering, UKIP hanging on.

But when we look at "Real Votes from Real People", from a 310,000+ sample size, from 3 countries since May 2016, we get a much different picture:

Local Votes

Local government by-elections may not be translatable into General Election results, but they show a remarkably different position - and one that is much more attuned with feedback from the doorstep.

Conservatives are managing only 30% of the popular vote, Labour 27% and the LibDems maintaining over 19%.

And this isn't just about tactical voting on local issues. These results are yielding broadly similar numbers of seats won: 32%, 26% and 22% respectively. (Exceptionally, UKIP aren't managing to do that, translating an 8% popular vote translating into only 4% of the seats.)

For the Liberal Democrats, with their continued growth in membership, now double its 2012 nadir, standing at 85,000 (35,000 since the referendum) this looks like a real, sticky #libdemfightback.

It positions the party well to be successful again in the May 2017 elections and the Gorton parliamentary by-election.

Local Council control and another MP are firmly back in its sights.

* Brian Milnes and John Grout are Lib Dem members in Reading