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Public opinion continues its steady move towards supporting referendum on Brexit deal

April 4, 2018 3:00 PM
By Mark Pack Author, 101 Ways To Win An Election

The latest YouGov polling on Britain's future in Europe shows a continuing steady trend of growing support for a referendum on the Brexit deal once its terms are known.

The actual levels of support found vary greatly depending on the exact wording of the question, which is why the trend is even more useful than usual in understanding what is going on. The trend is one of growing support, a pattern found with other polling and on this YouGov measure there is now the smallest ever gap between should/shouldn't have a referendum on the deal:

Brexit referendum (You Gov)

Another trend to note is the small but now consistent lead for people thinking the vote to leave the European Union was the wrong decision:

Brexit referendum 2 (You Gov)

As to where opinion may move next, the NHS seems central to that. Not only is an issue at or near the top of most people's list of concerns, it is also an issue people think Brexit will have an effect on - and increasingly think that will be a negative effect:

Brexit and NHS (You Gov)

Given the potentially serious negative impacts for NHS staffing of Brexit this is very much an angle to watch. It's a topic which could reach and persuade Leave voters rather than simply reinforce the views of Remain voters.